An economic crisis should not be added to the political, human and diplomatic crisis. Questioned on Sud Radio this Monday morning, the French Minister of Economy and Finance returned to the attacks which hit Israel this weekend. Wanting to be reassuring, Bruno Le Maire indicated that he expected “limited” consequences of the conflict on activity and the economy.
If the price of a barrel of Brent jumped this Monday morning, exceeding the mark of 87 dollars, against “84 last week”, this increase remains “limited”, below the 5% mark, noted the boss of Bercy. In addition, prices gradually fell again in the morning. “I think that the consequences of the conflict should be limited, on the economic level”, provided, however, that a “regional conflagration” is avoided”, indicated Bruno Le Maire, speaking to Sud Radio. A point of view shared by analysts cited by AFP: “What is decisive for the markets is whether the conflict remains contained or spreads to other regions, particularly Saudi Arabia,” they said. esteemed Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes, at ANZ.
The minister also defended the government’s energy policy, believing that gradually weaning ourselves off oil is also a way of protecting ourselves from economic ups and downs. “Accelerating the deployment of electricity, electric vehicles, green hydrogen, charging stations, means building our independence for the decades to come,” he declared.
This new crisis, however, risks reinforcing the volatility of oil prices, as uncertainties multiply. Inflation, slowdown in China, real estate crisis, OPEC announcements, drop in production by certain players… The contradictory signals have pushed the curve up and down in recent weeks, a situation which has put pressure on investors in turmoil.
Aside from oil, the expected consequences should remain minor if the conflict remains focused on the Jewish state. Israel is, in particular, a minor trading partner for France, which exported there, in 2022, for 2.1 billion euros, and imported for 1.5 billion euros, leading to a surplus balance for France, according to the General Directorate of the Treasury. Paris mainly sells “chemical products, perfumes and cosmetics”, “transport equipment” and “food industry products”. Several French companies, including Alstom, were able to sign major contracts with this partner, for a total of approximately “1.1 billion euros” in eighteen months, according to the Treasury.
