The Banque de France indicated on Tuesday that it anticipated a “slight increase” in French gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, driven by the services sector. After growth of 0.2% between January and March, “GDP would still be driven this quarter by market services, thanks in particular to trade, business services and information-communication,” declared the monetary institution. by presenting its monthly economic survey.
While activity was “very strong” in April, the Banque de France nevertheless warned that its growth forecast for the second quarter was “surrounded by greater uncertainty than usual” due to public holidays and bridges. of May. For the whole of 2024, the Banque de France expects growth of 0.8%, more pessimistic than the government’s forecast (1%).
In June it will publish its new medium-term macroeconomic forecasts, incorporating the budget cuts announced by the government to restore public finances. In the month of April alone, activity progressed in services, industry and construction “thanks in particular to a catch-up after a slow month of March and in view of a slow month of May », Detailed the Bank of France.
There was “very strong activity”, with “within the three sectors, almost all sub-sectors (…) on the rise”, declared Olivier Garnier, its general director in charge of statistics, studies and internationally, during a press briefing. Due to calendar effects, activity should then remain flat in May in services, while it would fall back in industry and construction, according to the expectations of 8,500 business leaders or establishments surveyed between April 26 and May 6.
Regarding order books, they are still considered “degraded” in industry, except aeronautics. They remain “far behind” compared to the pre-Covid period in the structural work of buildings, strongly penalized by the sluggishness of the construction of new housing. On the price front, the Banque de France signaled a continuation of “the moderation of sales prices” in a context marked by the decline in inflation which could, according to its governor François Villeroy de Galhau, lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower its rates on June 6.
