We know a little more about the potential effects of the unemployment insurance reform desired by the government. This could affect up to a third of beneficiaries, according to evaluations of some of the measures envisaged by the executive to review the rules for compensating job seekers, according to an internal Unedic document. While the government has yet to formalize its choices, the organization responsible for managing this scheme has internally distributed a study estimating the impact of different scenarios on beneficiaries and on expenditure, we learned on Saturday from reliable sources.
In this document, revealed by Le Monde and of which AFP obtained a copy, up to a third of beneficiaries would be affected if the government decided to toughen the conditions for granting rights. At the end of March, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal listed three possible levers for reforming unemployment insurance: duration of compensation, level of compensation and condition of affiliation, that is to say the time one must have worked to be compensated. On this last parameter, among the avenues mentioned is the fact that it will be necessary to have worked nine months over the last two years, and no longer six.
According to Unédic’s internal document, 11% of beneficiaries would be affected by a deferral of entitlement if this duration were extended to seven months and the scheme would save 400 million euros per year. The proportion would rise to 31% if the duration was increased to twelve months, for a saving of 2.3 billion euros. The impact would be even greater if the executive decided to reduce the reference period during which one must have worked to receive benefits, reducing it from 24 months to 18.
Tightening the affiliation condition would primarily affect recipients under the age of 25 or those leaving a fixed-term or temporary contract. “This confirms that the people furthest from employment and quality employment will be affected. We cannot clearly see the link with full employment, we are in poverty traps,” Olivier Guivarch, CFDT negotiator for unemployment insurance, commented to AFP.
Another possible scenario evaluated: a reduction to 12 months in the duration of compensation, which is currently 18 months for those under 53. This would result in less coverage for 45% of beneficiaries and reduced expenditure of almost 6 billion for Unedic. Reducing the duration of compensation would affect a different profile of beneficiaries, particularly those over 25, with higher than average benefits or finding themselves unemployed after a conventional termination.
“Thanks to Unedic, we have figures that the government never gives. We see that this could be violent and further reduce the number of people who can be entitled to it,” said Denis Gravouil, CGT negotiator on unemployment insurance. The new rules, which are expected to be more restrictive, are to apply from July 1. The government’s choices, initially expected this week, are expected very soon. However, this should not be next week, according to a government source.