It had to come, but it happened faster than you had thought. Syria’s notorious dictator, shunned from araberverdenen since 2011, are now experiencing that the embassies in Damascus reopened and that the arab envoys flock to. Probably Syria back as a full member of The arab league during its summit in Tunis in march.
What has happened? With Russia’s and Iran’s help Bashar Assad slowly but surely taken back most of the territory he lost to syrian rebels the early years of the civil war. The last few months have Assad has emerged as the winner, and it has other arab countries had to accept. And forgiveness is often a large among arab brothers. It experienced not the least Egypt, after president Anwar Sadats peace treaty with Israel, was excluded from the arab league from 1979 to 1989.
Here is something of what has happened:
29. september, there was a surprising meeting at the UN in New York between the syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem and Bahrains foreign minister Ahmed al-Khalifa. The tone between the two was said to have been “hot”.
16. December came sudan’s president Omar Bashir on an official visit to Syria, the first arab state visits since 2011.
22. December went the syrian etterretningssjefen Ali Mamluk to Cairo to talk with egyptian leaders.
27. December announced The united arab emirates that the country’s embassy in Damascus was re-opened. The same day did Bahrains rulers it clear that they will follow suit.
In January, going Mauritanias president Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz to Damascus. According to unconfirmed messages is also Iraq’s president Barham Salih on the way.
Several arab countries have a clear goal with the approach to Syria; Bashar Assads relation to Iran. It’s iranians who kept Assad at the power and who have secured a very strong foothold in the country. This is something that arab leaders have placed little value on, and now they hope to be able to influence Assad to change course.
But the fight against the militant islamistgrupper, not the least of IS and al-Qaeda also plays an important role for several countries, including Egypt. In that game, is Syria an important ally.
That the several countries such as The united arab emirates for several years has supported the Syrian rebels do not seem to play any particular role. As elsewhere in the world, it is realpolitikken and not the principles that prevail.
Approach between the selling arab states arms and Syria have been going on for a certain period of time, but Donald Trumps information 19. December that the united STATES pulls its forces back from Syria has seriously gained momentum on the matter. Now has not the U.S.-friendly arab countries, the united STATES to take into account longer, and Bashar Assads victory is closer.
The big loser seems to be Saudi Arabia, syria’s main enemy next to Iran. Saudiene is weakened because of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in October and because of the war in the Yemen. When Bahrain, which in reality is a realm of sound during Saudi Arabia, has been given the green light to resume the diplomatic relations with Syria, suggesting, among other things, that the authorities in Riyadh sends out a prøveballong; Iran’s influence is muted?
On paper see also Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to be one of the victors the United states the range. Now get the sultan in Ankara the opportunity to take a final settlement with the former us-supported kurdish YPG militia, with the help of syrian rebels from The free syrian army, FSA. In recent days dozens of Turkish tanks sent to the border towards Syria, and several Turkish soldiers to be inserted in the battle for the strategically important town of Manbij, where kurdish forces have had control, not least with the help of the americans. When the americans go, are the kurds left to fend for herself. In a desperate attempt to keep Erdogan out has the YPG made a deal with Assad to let the syrian government forces occupy areas around the city.
Everything has been to the right for a syrian confrontation with Turkey in the fight of Manbij, but this is a situation Erdogan for any cost want to avoid. Saturday met Russia’s and Turkey’s foreign and defence ministers in Moscow where you came from “understanding” to “coordinate military action” in Syria to utradere “the terrorist threat” (read militant islamistgrupper). The kurds, who have their own autonomous region, Rojava, in north-eastern Syria, was not mentioned.
About the Russian-Turkish “coordination” is something of, will the time to view. But regardless of the sitting dictator in Damascus is safer than at any time since the uprising against him began in 2011.
