Although half of the andalusian valued negatively by the current socialist government, the PSOE will be the force with the most votes with the highest probability. This apparent paradox can be explained with two data of the study to 40dB. has done for this newspaper.
MORE INFORMATION The PSOE will win in Andalusia, but will need agreements to govern Teresa Rodriguez, Ahead of Andalusia, the candidate is more valued by The socialists need to agree with the left or Citizens
on the one hand, thanks to the loyalty of the voter socialist: one-third of the people who are going to vote for the PSOE will do so, although their balance sheet of the government of Susana Díaz is “negative” or “neither positive, nor negative”. And on the other, thanks to the division of the opposition: the study estimates that the PSOE will get around 32% of the votes, without which none of their rivals to achieve coordination of their detractors (the PP would be around 20% of votes, Ahead of Andalusia, 19%, and Citizens, 18%).
it Is interesting to stop to look at the flows of votes. How are moving with respect to the regional elections of 2015? On the left there are large transfers. The PSOE is to be exchanged, voters Can and IU, which now come together, but without anyone being imposed on a net basis. If the PSOE has just backsliding on vote it will be surely because miss votes in favor of Citizens; 5% of the socialists say they Neyine will vote for the party of John Marin. The PP is, however, the party could lose more votes according to the data of 40dB. Suffers leakage became Citizens, but also maybe it was Vox. Up to 14% of the respondents who recall having voted for the PP in 2015 are now saying they would vote for Vox.
That is the biggest question of the elections next Sunday. The estimation of 40dB. he says that Vox will be about 4.3% of the votes and that has a real chance to achieve seats. The CIS gave him options in Almeria, but this new study suggests that it could achieve representation also in Seville, Malaga and Granada (three of the provinces that dealt more seats). The model prediction of the electoral of THE COUNTRY, published this week, offers a prognosis similar to: Vox would have a 50% chance to get seats, and 25% of two or more. If it continues to rise, it could reach four or five deputies.
finally, the survey of 40dB. it also offers clues about the negotiation to form a Government. As our prediction model, believes that the most likely outcome is that the PSOE to reach the most of both with Citizens and with the Forth Andalusia, being able to negotiate with the two parties separately. Both options seem, in addition to politically viable in the light of the responses of the interviewees.
An agreement between PSOE and Citizens is sensed tolerable for both electorates, because that is the second option with more support. But a covenant was the left seems easier. The agreement between PSOE and Forth Andalusia is the preferred option of 75 percent of the voters of the party of Teresa Rodriguez and 39% of that of Susana Díaz.