The confrontation in Venezuela is a distant past re-appear: the Cold war, countries on the brink of civil war, Washington supported the one side, and Moscow on the other. The United States and Russia, trade fairs in Syria and Ukraine, the forces slides, in a new Era of proxy wars like the Soviet Union and the United States around the globe, for example in Nicaragua and El Salvador (Latin America), Angola (Africa), Korea, and Vietnam (Asia)?
a new proxy war with Moscow
make A direct Succession of their armed forces is not to be feared. A year-long conflict, fueled by arms shipments and military advisors in Venezuela is unlikely. The constellation is a different one. Moscow is not a world power, has the resources for an active policy on Latin America. And hardly any allies there, only the troubled Cuba and Bolivia. You don’t have the means to prevent the fall of the dictator Nicolás Maduro. The Latino socialism has been discredited, even by the decline of the living standards and the order in Venezuela. Left-wing populism in Latin America is in a downturn, centrist to right-wing conservative forces are winning the inlet.
A large coalition of States in North and South America, says Nicolás Maduro was a usurper, he cede need. The impetus was not of Donald Trump, but of Canada’s liberal Minister of foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland. She enters fearlessly for democracy and fundamental rights, from Saudi Arabia to China. The power weights of the Region (Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru) to support the young, moderate leader of the opposition, Juan Guaidó. Neighbors such as Colombia and Ecuador will be felt for years, the burden of the decline in Venezuela. Despite the oil wealth, it has become the poor house, million have fled abroad, working as a cheap unskilled labour, the growing social tensions in the places of refuge. Therefore, the Region yearns for an end to the nightmare of the Maduro dictatorship.
Where is the solidarity with Democrats, who risk a lot?
Actually, it is clear who it is in the right. So, who are Germany and the EU should support. They respond but be careful. Maduro is not a legitimate President. Guaidó don’t want to acknowledge. They demand new elections. This is understandable – and it also has a bit of a coward. Where is the solidarity with Democrats, who risk a lot?
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For a restraint order speaks: The situation is dangerous. The military is yet to Maduro, a confrontation on the street can lead to a bloodbath. Of course, the generals are not out of Conviction to him, but because they benefit from the System. Guaidó want to win Amnesty. He may also hope that the lower ranks refuse to shoot at people.
another risk is Donald Trump. The USA would have a prudent President who is aware of its responsibility and in close coordination with allies in the Region, would be the chances of a rapid, bloodless solution greater. Trump is unprepared and has domestic political motives. He wants to free himself from the Defensive in the budget dispute, where he had suffered defeat. And I would like to re-appear.
German caution has disadvantages
The German caution has of course also disadvantages. The offer of new elections would be a gift for Maduro. He wants to win time, the power to organize. He controlled the mass media and the state apparatus. New elections would only be an Option if Maduro immediately back to a neutral transition government to organise the ballot. Free elections would lose a Maduro. He knows that. Because you can offer him the same penalty of exile and Guaidó the Power to pass. All hope is on the understanding of the military.
