In the struggle for power in Venezuela have signaled to both counterparties willingness to talk. Neither the self-interim-proclaimed President Juan Guaidó the authoritarian rulers of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro from the back but from their positions. The conflict in Venezuela games but not only at the national level, explained the sociologist and publicist, Tulio Hernández, of the daily mirror. “Further, the regional implications are and the third, finally, is the one of the big geopolitics with actors such as China, USA and Russia.” For months, a complex scenario has been prepared.
the role of The neighbors
The organization of American States (OAS) has recognized Guaidó. The OAS went in last time more and more away from Maduro. The standoff began after the unlawful election of a constituent Assembly in 2017 in Venezuela, the then elections held, in which Maduro was due to fraud confirm. Maduro’s hanging out now Survive solely by the Venezuelan military, says Hernández. What could be quite a Chance: “A negotiated solution is the Alternative with the lowest cost for all.” Also for the neighbouring countries, which had to absorb in the past few months, hundreds of thousands of refugees. For such a solution would have to dissociate, however, parts of the military, Maduro and force him to hold early elections to convene. The OAS is trying to take in this direction of influence is one of the ways for the progress of the events.
And if that doesn’t happen? “Then the military would have to take a bloodbath and a military dictatorship established. Because this Regime has lost the support from the people, almost completely, have shown the tiny Pro-government rallies of the past few days,“ says the expert.
USA
The next power sample is expected this Saturday, when the 72-hour deadline for the expulsion of the US-expires diplomats. President Donald Trump has immediately put challengers to its Self-proclamation on the side of Madurós. Now the US is trying to Guaidó the revenue from the Oil industry. “Today we focus on separating the illegitimate Maduro Regime from its sources of income,” said the national security Advisor to John Bolton.
at the same time however, it’s hinted, to play with the idea of a kind of intervention. All Opitionen be on the table, it was said from the White house. However, this is the case in similar situations, again and again. It carries a risk: at some point, you do not need to be or the retreat commenced redeemed, if the threat works. “Maduro is someone who feels a Martyr out of an imperialist Intervention professions of his Psyche”, is Hernández is convinced. “The United States and the Opposition is not to the benefit of such a scenario, but then a fight against the Empire is a citizen rebellion.”
Russia and China
Russia and China in support of Maduro, they are gone, however, to be able to military intervention, says Hernández. However, this is by no means certain. In December, Russia had sent demonstratively strategic supersonic bombers Tu-160 and other military transport planes to Venezuela to provide its capabilities for a rapid deployment of Troops over the distance of more than 10000 kilometers. In Venezuela, there were joint manoeuvres with Maduro’s air force. For Russia, the loss of considerable financial investment is on the agenda, if the Opposition came to Power. Moscow has put Caracas in the last few years, to around 17 billion dollars in loans, wrote the business newspaper “RBK” on Friday. A Central role of the Russian Oil company Rosneft, who has negotiated oil concessions in Venezuela. China left it with a warning to the US not to interfere.
Germany and the EU
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South America Venezuela’s President Maduro represents the United States an Ultimatum
Both actors Guaidó not have acknowledged, but called for fair and free elections. The EU, like Germany, are in Venezuela but practically without influence. (with dpa)
