US President Donald Trump and the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un have withdrawn on Wednesday night Vietnamese time for the first exchange of views in Hanoi. The two-day Meeting on Wednesday and Thursday is your second personal encounter, after their first nuclear summit in June 2018 in Singapore. North Korea has tested since many months, no weapon of mass destruction and missile attempts. With these Successes, Trump justifies its controversial policy to meet with Kim. At the second summit, he is under pressure to achieve more successes. Here is a guide to evaluate the results.
What Trump?
In the Winter of 2016/17 has vowed to Trump in the time between his election and inauguration that he was going to solve the Problem of North Korean nuclear weapons. He measured: he Achieved over the course of several summit, that North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons? Or, in the more General formulation: that the Korean Peninsula nuclear weapons-free? The General promise that Kim is aiming for a nuclear weapons-free Korea, received a Trump at the Singapore summit before the eight months. There is a deadline for the goal to be achieved is missing. There are also concrete steps for the way are missing.
Trump and Kim greeted each other with a long handshake photo: REUTERS/Leah Millis
In the eyes of the American voters Trump is able to report a full success, if North Korea has destroyed in a verifiable manner, all nuclear weapons, its atomic energy has demolished the plants and the fissile, weapons published Material. It would be a miracle if Trump and Kim spell out the way at the summit in Hanoi. If Trump reaches, but specific concessions for the long way to this goal, it would be a success.
Trumps intelligence service Director Dan Coats has been given in January to consider: It is “unlikely that North Korea gives up sites to all nuclear weapons and their production. They are crucial for the Survival of the regime.” Some interpreted this as a risky correction of the President. Others said that it’ll help Trump, when expectations are reduced to the summit.
The extent of concrete steps on the way to a nuclear-weapon-free North Korea depends on which image of Trump in the history books: the President, aggravated the North Korea-Problem? Or the President, provided there is a solution? In the first year of the Trump presidency two unflattering cuts: North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb. And it is a long shot range missile, which can reach, according to calculations from the test data, a large city in the United States.
The key data, the negative balance of the North Korea policy in the Trump presidency. The second year began with desert threats. The confrontation began, but then face to face negotiations with Kim. He needs to have measurable success, so the first part of the balance sheet to outshine. So far, North Korea has submitted a list of its nuclear facilities. There is a lack of trust was the reason.
What are Kim?
Kim wants to get rid of the sanctions against North Korea. This is his main goal. He wants to export guess products for which he can get hard currency, such as seafood and shellfish, as well as coal and other minerals. Wisely, Vietnam was chosen as the site of the summit. Also Vietnam was a war opponent of the United States, 40 years after the end of the war, but a booming economy.
Kim demands in return for North Korean disarmament corresponding concessions from South Korea and the United States. South Korea has no nuclear weapons. The United States should withdraw its nuclear weapons from South Korea and the surrounding countries, and guarantees not to give, that you lay these weapons quickly back to South Korea.
The daily mirror cooperates with the survey Institute Civey. When you register, you are contributing to better results. More information here.
Kim also calls for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea. And requires entry of the waiver of joint maneuvers of the United States with South Korea. At this point, the security interests of South Korea come into the game, a close ally of the United States. South Korea relies on the United States. It has no such a powerful army like North Korea, and this superiority would be delivered in eight, if the US pull in exchange for the denuclearization of your troops. In South Korea, some people have the concern, Trump will ignore South Korea’s interests, if he could only come to be a success with Kim.
What would be a success?
As a small success could be considered, if North Korea declared its readiness, a list of its nuclear facilities and a list of its nuclear weapons. A bigger success would be if North Korea is the removal of important nuclear plant, ahead of the plant in Yongbyon. Skeptics argue, however, that North Korea had not begun construction of a secret new plants, whose location is not known. Then the demolition of the old facilities would be at the known locations a sham.
A bigger success would be the willingness to destroy nuclear weapons under the supervision of; North Korea is said to have 30. Also, the release of fissile material, the weapon is capable of, would be a success.
What would be a disappointment?
If Trump can not obtain concrete concessions from Kim in the nuclear weapons issue, it would be a disappointment. Of course, both have builds that the summit ends up as a complete failure. Two solutions offer themselves, to show concrete results, without making major concessions.
first, a Declaration of the end of the state of war between the United States and North Korea. The Korean war in 1953 ended with a truce. It never came to the official conclusion of peace. A Declaration of the end of the war, would be a nice gesture, but not a big progress.
More about
North Korea against the USA A new world order
Christoph von Marschall
Trump and Kim also want to agree to open diplomatic missions in each other’s capital. You should only have the Status of “liaison offices” and not from messages. It would also be a welcome step, but not impressive success. When the official results will remain on this level – the termination of a state of war, the opening of liaison offices would be a sign that major advances were not possible. That would be a disappointment. And a setback for trump’s objective, a substantial change in relation to North Korea and to reduce the threat.
