The job bends but does not break. Published on Wednesday, the latest figures from Pôle emploi and Dares underline the marked slowdown in the labor market. Between April and June inclusive, the number of registered in category A, in the whole of France, has indeed decreased by 0.2%, or less than 5000 people, according to the institutions. A much weaker dynamic than those observed in the latest publications: as a reminder, over the first three months of the year, the number of job seekers had fallen by 1.2% in category A, which then included 3.016 million ‘people.
The decline is slightly more marked for categories A, B, C, whose number of registrants fell by 0.5% over the quarter, and for all categories – A, B, C, D and E -, which slows down by 0.3%. By way of comparison, the fall had reached, in the first quarter, 0.4% for categories A, B and C, as well as for all categories combined – A, B, C, D and E. Ultimately, the first category brings together a little over three million people without any activity, when the total number of registrants is approaching, quarter after quarter, the six million mark.
Within category A, the situation is more contrasted for young people: the number of registrants under the age of 25 increases, by 0.4% over the quarter and 2.1% over one year. It also increased by 0.6% among 25 to 49 year olds, when the over 50s saw their number drop by 1.7%, on the contrary.
Since mid-2017, the decline has reached 734,000 registered for category A, and 515,000 for the first three. A dynamism which the executive welcomes, even cherishing the hope of achieving “full employment” by the end of the five-year term. “We must aim for an 80% employment rate in the coming years”, thus pleaded, at the beginning of July, Bruno Le Maire in Aix-en-Provence.
Other experts are more cautious, recalling that the rise in interest rates, the concern of households and businesses alike and the slowdown in activity will eventually weigh on employment. In its June forecasts, the Banque de France wrote to expect a rise in the unemployment rate until 2025: productivity”, analyzed the institution’s experts. Same observation for INSEE, which forecasts a slowdown in job creation: “Total employment would increase by 38,000 during the second quarter of 2023 then by 40,000 during the second half of 2023, after 97,000 in the first quarter of 2023”, underline the national statisticians. What chip the hope of “full employment”.
