The genie is the favorite, according to the statistics, but the portent is on the rise and with the ability to dethrone him. The Norwegian Magnus Carlsen, of 27 years, already held the title two years ago in New York, against Russian Sergey Karjakin in a playoff fast as the dispute this Wednesday in London (from 16.00 cet) with Fabiano Caruana, 26, after twelve consecutive draws in games slow, something that has not happened in 500 years of history of modern chess. The awards add up to one million euros.

The print that gave Carlsen on Monday the 12th game is not that expected of a great champion: he offered tables in an advantageous position, and with more time on the clock. Among the millions of disappointed by that attitude is nothing less than Gari Kaspárov, number one between 1985 and 2005, and coach of the scandinavian for a short period, before achieving the title in 2013: “In the light of that amazing offer of tables, ( … ), because I don’t see him as a favorite in fast games. The playoffs require a few nerves tremendous, and it seems that he does not have”, he wrote a few hours later on Twitter.

Other elite players have been expressed in similar terms. And especially Vladimir Kramnik, who dethroned Kaspárov in 2000: “The first word that comes to mind after seeing how Carlsen offers tables when you have advantage without risk, is a shame (…). Something goes wrong in it, it seems that will not bear the pressure.”

This attitude of the champion is just the antithesis of what he did in Chennai (India) in 2013, when they dethroned Viswanathan Anand: he accepted the risk of playing the last game to win, even though it was a draw and ended up in tables). But the young and vigorous genius, hungry for glory and is now a champion in shambles, ill-prepared, lacking in confidence, with great difficulty to motivate you.

expand photo Fabiano Caruana, at the start of the 12th game, this Monday in London L. G.

on the contrary, Caruana is in full line up: 2nd in the world list, just three points off the Norwegian; it would have sufficed a single victory yours in any of the twelve Jestbahis items of this World so that in addition to the crown would have the number one. The only thing that is against him are the numbers: in the ranks of the rapid games (the playoff starts today with a series of four, with 25 minutes for each one), the u.s. is the 8th, at 91 points of Carlsen (1); and lightning (in case of a tie after the four rapid, will be played a maximum of five batches of two, with 5 minutes per side), Caruana is the 16th, 172 points behind the leader, Carlsen. In the unlikely event that even is still a tie after those fourteen matches, a sudden death: five minutes for white, a forced win, and four for black.

The progress of Caruana is the two modalities-accelerated -its weak point – it is clear, to the point that in the last three years, their balance with Carlsen is 2-2 in the fast, and 2,5-5,5 in favour of the Norwegian, in the lightning. Maybe there’s another more influential factor in the field psychological: Carlsen has won nine playoffs quick has played since 2007. But it is also true that he had never given an image as gray, with his genius dormant in a long siesta that never ends stand up.

two years Ago, Carlsen admitted in New York that its main weak point was the control of emotions, and announced that he was going to work with it; it can be assumed that he was referring to hiring the services of a psychologist specializing in high performance sports. But sources close to him have confirmed to THE COUNTRY that it has not been done, because it is not deemed necessary. It is likely that during the mourning of London has changed his mind, but no time to correct that error. Your possession of the title runs serious danger.