From a historical Moment, the speech was in Cairo, negotiations are held about the future of humanity, said the UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali to the delegates from 179 countries. For nine days the struggle went on, then a plan of action “to curb rapid population growth”. The States called upon themselves to improve the living conditions for people in developing countries to promote family planning and women more rights. That was in 1994.

Some of the Talk of Cairo you could hold again today, without that it would recognize. “Women need to be able to determine how many children you get,” he said on Tuesday, for example, the German development Minister. “And that means equal rights for women.” On the follow-up conference in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi delegates about the growth of the population advise since yesterday again.

Africa and Asia to

In the 25 years since the Cairo conference, much has happened. Women get significantly less young, in 1994, at a global average of about 2.8 children; today there are close to 2.5. In many countries, these so-called fertility is gone, the rate declined dramatically, including in countries where one would not have suspected it sooner, such as in Morocco (2,2 children per woman) or Bangladesh (2,1). A lot more women have access to Doctors and contraception.

The trend, however, is not managed, it is not even in sight. As before, the mankind is growing rapidly. Every day 230’000 people, nearly, roughly equivalent to the population of a city the Size of Geneva. Every year, there are 82 million people. And they all want to be food, housing, mobile, lead a good life.

Currently, the estimated life of the world, according to the United Nations, with 7.7 billion people, by 2030, the UN experts expect 8.5 billion, 2100 finally, 10.9 billion. Until the turn of the century, the UN expects an end to growth. It is expected to take until then for decades, is mainly due to the fact that there are so many young people. The Trend of recent decades continues, so you’ll get per Few less children than today, but it will give you a lot more couples that cannot have children.

25 years after Cairo, it comes in developing countries alone, to 89 million unwanted pregnancies per year. What would be the Rights of women. Most of the growth in Africa is likely to be of sub-Saharan Africa alone, the UN experts expect by the year 2050, nearly one billion people more than today. Also in Asia, the mankind continues to grow, while the curves on the other continents are already falling. Overall, however, it goes further up.

“demographic dividend”

What is so questionable? Many young people can be good for the development of a country. Because the birth rate falls, once the proportion of people increases in the working age. You can now drive economic growth, prosperity and government revenue increase. Scientists speak of a “demographic dividend”. The not succeed, but far from everywhere.

Many researchers, development workers and politicians to emphasize, therefore, disadvantages and risks of rapid growth. Since the many suffering, in the emergence of unwanted pregnancies, especially in teenagers, is first of all. Mothers die in bumbling abortion, at birth, to be disowned by the family or the village community, are suffering permanent health damage.

The growing number of people can be for a country also for a barrier to Development, the demographic burden instead of a dividend. This threatens in particular, if the state is unable to cope with the many new citizens, if he can’t provide enough schools, hospitals and roads ready to provide all the people a perspective of decent work, and more self-determination. Without better education, there is no development. But even now, millions of teachers in African schools. And without at least a basic education, birth rates remain high. Every statistic says. When the girls visit, only a few years longer the classes, you will get significantly less children. Education is the best contraceptive.

Add to this the consumption of resources comes. More people means that more arable land is needed, more forests cleared, more climate-encounter harmful gases, at least during the previous growth model. Due to the technical progress, it is always possible to feed the growing number of people are yet all the warnings of the past centuries and decades, in Spite of that, the Expansion of humanity would be brutally halted by famine. New varieties, artificial fertilizers or pesticides, the crop yields in the height. In many places, however, is also damage the intensive agriculture behind.

Excessive land use

All of this goes hand in hand with more greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC in a special report in August, excessive land use, especially deforestation and agriculture, for about a quarter of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Wherein the decisive factor is the consumption of resources per capita and this is in the industrialised countries, where the population is stagnating, the number is usually many times higher than in the poorest countries, which are mainly for the population growth.

Created: 12.11.2019, 21:10 Uhr