The victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) was incubated in a liberalism’s condescending and mediocre that it would take him two decades asking for patience to give results. An orthodoxy of text-book dismissing the popular demands as ignorant, and who defended the status quo of inequality and poverty by being “less bad” than the other scenarios imagined.
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it Was the lack of vision of these liberals, which prevented them from creating political platforms to question the meager economic performance of the country and understand the root of the discontent. Hunched over, small, autonombrados liberals not atinaron more than to call the followers of Lopez Obrador “the angry ones”. And this is what’s empowered even more.
So, Andrés Manuel won the elections with a forcefulness without historical precedent (30 million votes; majority in both houses), and with a speech worthy of the canon populist: he had triumphed in the good village, against the “mafia of power”.
And his triumph detonated what that will be, throughout his presidency, his two Achilles heel: the panic of their opponents and the extravagant expectations of his followers.
The first thing you may have to AMLO without care, for now. The intellectual bankruptcy and political opposition is deep and precedes the choice. Deprived of touch and social and public policy ambitious, the opposition has only been proposed, time and again, platforms that are based on changes minimally marginal. Something for which the Mexico of the corruption scandals everyday and searing already has no patience.
The party of the outgoing president (PRI) is so discredited that discusses if you should change the name in order to cloak itself as something fresh (the proposal itself is ludicrous and worthy representative of his no-direction).
The right (PAN) and the left lopezobradorista (PRD) were merged in an attempt to be competitive, thereby achieving a platform schizophrenic struggles with tribal internal that do not allow them to reinvent themselves.
beyond that, during the five long months that have passed between the election day (July) and the next decision of the protest (December), the opposition has not hit to find how to demand that Lopez Obrador be taken into account. Unlike other presidents-elect, Andres Manuel began to advance decisions (appointments of cabinet, for example) before officially beginning his term. Before this, the political dynamic between the next Nakitbahis president and the opposition can now be assessed and does not leave a good results.
The opposition does not give a. Ask that the plans of AMLO change based on “recommendations of expert” of a technocracy discredited by your lack of results. Criticized López Obrador for giving samples not to rely on the autonomous institutions, without recognizing that some of these institutions have been autonomous from political power but not economic. As Andrés Manuel of little democratic without realizing that, in Mexico at the inequalities and lack of opportunity, people are willing to sacrifice certain democratic processes to see the results. Still wondering why people are not disenchanted with Lopez Obrador, without realizing that the biggest disappointment is with the status quo.
despite this, it is not at all far-fetched that the opposition can reinvent itself in the medium term, especially if AMLO doesn’t care his second, and more delicate, Achilles ‘ heel: the insane expectations of their voters.
Lopez Obrador wins the presidency with the highest level of approval since the democratic transition in mexico (66%), and with high hopes of immediate change. 63% of mexicans believe that will solve the problems of corruption, and 70% expected reductions in poverty and improvements in the economy.
it Will be difficult for AMLO to achieve the expectations. Especially because, as part of an effort to meet the economic power, promised to avoid a tax reform during his first three years of government.
This promise, he tied the hands. Mexico is one of the countries of Latin America that less taxes collected as a percentage of its GDP, similar to tax havens such as Panama. Without a tool to achieve a collection of more progressive taxes, it will be difficult for AMLO to achieve to implement its ambitious proposal for public investment and social programs.
Further, some recent decisions have cost the support of many of their voting center. The organization of popular consultations to be biased, the presentation of government plans that militarizan the public force, and the creation of alliances with politicians and businessmen of dubious reputation, you pull away from a group that led to the victory and we have dropped 9 points of popularity in a month according to some sources.
The common distrust of the international markets the governments of the left will serve also as a constraint to change. When some weeks ago the leader of the bench of Brown (party of López Obrador) presented a very rough initiative to eliminate the commissions of the oligopoly banking, the Mexican Stock market lost 5.8% points. Similar effects happened when they spoke to regulate the environmental pollution from the mining and, when he reiterated his program of increase of pensions in a public rally, the peso lost value due to fears the financial.
even More, it is common that during the first year of a new government, the economy will slow for the learning curve. This time, the slowdown will be accentuated, because AMLO plans to cut 70% of the public jobs and reduce the pay of senior management to be able to increase public spending without increasing taxes. The lack of capacity and the lack of motivation of the bureaucracy will be placed on the foot.
The political future of Mexico remains to be written. There is a lot at stake. A Andrés Manuel with no results, and an opposition without a compass could take Mexico to the Brazil of Bolsonaro. Recall that democracies, since they do not perish, as before, in the hands of generals who take power by violent means. What do they do when the hopelessness is empowering to those who propose radical solutions, without a balance opponent.
Viridiana Rios is an academic and analyst of mexican (@Viri_Rios).