Many people have fled to Ukraine, fighting for their lives or abandoning their fields to help the Ukrainian farmers. Ports are closed that allow wheat and other staple foods to be shipped around the world. There are also concerns that Russia, another agricultural powerhouse could see its grain exports halted by Western sanctions.
Although there haven’t been worldwide disruptions to wheat supplies yet, prices have risen 55% in the week since the invasion amid fears about what might happen next. Arnaud Petit, director of International Grains Council, said that countries that rely upon Ukraine’s affordable wheat exports could be in serious trouble if the conflict continues.
That could create food insecurity and throw more people into poverty in places like Egypt and Lebanon, where diets are dominated by government-subsidized bread. Officials in Europe are anticipating a shortage of Ukraine’s products and higher prices for livestock feed. If farmers have to pass on the costs, this could lead to more expensive meat and dairy.
Nearly a third of world’s wheat- and barley exports are combined by Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is also a major supplier for corn and the world’s leader in sunflower oil, which is used in food processing. This war could lead to a decrease in food supplies at a time when prices have reached their highest levels since 2011.
Long-term conflict could have serious consequences located 1,500 miles (2.400 km) away in Egypt. Egypt is the largest importer of wheat in the world. Millions of people rely on Ukrainian bread to survive. About a third of the population lives in poverty.
Ahmed Salah, a father of seven aged 47, stated in Cairo that wars are characterized by shortages and (price) increases. “Any price hikes will be disastrous not only for me but also for the majority.
Anna Nagurney is a professor of supply chain, logistics, and economics at University of Massachusetts Amherst. She said that wheat, corn, oils barley, flour, and oil are all vital to food security, especially in the poorer regions of the world.
She said that Ukrainian men were being called to fight and asked, “Who’s going be harvesting?” Who would be responsible for the transport?
The state procurer of wheat in Egypt, which usually purchases a lot of wheat from Russia and Ukraine, had two orders to cancel within a week. One was due to overpricing, while the other was cancelled because there were not enough companies willing to sell their supply. Sharp rises in wheat prices globally could adversely impact Egypt’s ability keep bread prices at the current subsidized level.
Mirette Mabrouk (a senior fellow at The Middle East Institute) wrote that bread is heavily subsidised in Egypt.
Recently, war-torn Syria announced that it would reduce spending and ration staples. Authorities in Lebanon are trying to compensate for the predicted wheat shortage. The country was devastated by a huge explosion at its Beirut port in 2020. They are currently in discussions with Canada, India, and the U.S. to find alternative sources for a country that is already in financial crisis.
People in Kenya demanded #lowerfoodprices even before war threatened wheat supplies in sub-Saharan Africa. This was because inflation had eroded their purchasing power. They are now bracing themselves for worse.
According to Wandile Sihlobo (chief economist, Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa), African countries imported $4 billion worth of agricultural products from Russia in 2020. About 90% of that was wheat.
Flour millers in Nigeria believe that a lack of Russian wheat supplies would impact the prices of bread, which is a popular food in Africa’s largest country.
Tope Ogun, a top Nigerian flour milling company, stated that “all of us need to search elsewhere” for the future. “We might not be able to get the things we need, and there will likely to be an increase of the price.”
Nigeria has made efforts to reduce dependence on Russian grains. Farmers are now moving to plant more wheat to try and meet 70% of Nigeria’s demand within five years, according to Gambo Sale (national secretary of the Wheat Farmers Association of Nigeria).
He said, “We have the land and the people, we also have the money to support our efforts to grow wheat in Nigeria.” “All that’s missing now is time.”
You can feel the disruption as far as Indonesia, where wheat is used for instant noodles, bread and fried foods.
Last year, Ukraine supplied 26% of Indonesia’s wheat needs. According to Kasan Muhri (head of the research division at trade ministry), rising prices for noodles would harm lower-income individuals.
IHS Markit reported that 75% of global sunflower oils are exported from Russia and Ukraine, while Russia accounts for 10% of all cooking oil production.
Raad Hebsi is a Baghdad wholesaler who said that he and other Iraqis are ready to pay more for their cooking oils.
He stated that once the items are sold, there will be an increase in their prices. “We will most likely buy alternatives from Turkey and Turkey will no doubt profit from the situation in Ukraine to raise its prices.”
The United States is the world’s largest corn exporter and major wheat supplier. Farmers there are monitoring to see if U.S. grain exports increase. Farmers in the European Union are worried about rising prices for livestock feed.
The EU receives just 60% of Ukraine’s corn, and almost half of the key ingredient in grains used to feed livestock. Russia supplies the EU with 40% more natural gas than it needs . It is also a major supplier for fertilizer, wheat, and other staples.
Spain is experiencing a shortage of sunflower oil which supermarkets are rationing and grains needed for the vital breeding industry. These imported grains are used to feed 55 million pigs.
Jaume Bernis is a breeder of 1,200 swine in northeast Spain. He is 58 years old and fears that war will increase the suffering his farm is experiencing due to climate changes and drought.
Bernis stated that Spanish pork products have been losing money since October due to high costs. China is stockpiling feed to its pigs in an effort to avert a deadly outbreak of African Swine Fever.
The price of grain for animal food jumped 10% in Spain during the initial days of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
Bernis stated that “We are currently facing a moment with very high costs and we don’t know what lies ahead.” “This is yet another cost of fighting a war in 21st century.”