That it is far, the time in which Emmanuel Macron, presidential candidate, said that pensions would not be a problem in the course of his action! “We have a chance, it is that there will be no financial imbalance of the system”, was responsible for it in The Figaro, at the end of April 2017, in the period between the two rounds, before promising to”take the opportunity to resolve the issues in a systemic manner, so that we would no longer have to return to it”. Since then, nothing happened as expected. Not only does the system quickly derived, showing the need for funding in the order of € 12 billion per year to 2025, but the crisis has exploded to new levels.
according To the estimate of the orientation council of the pensions (COR), the deficit of the system would be close to 30 billion at the end of the year – against $ 4.2 billion that was initially expected, that is, a multiplication by seven. This degradation is exclusively due to the fall of the revenue, of the order of 26 billion, because of measures of exemption and reports of contributions decided by the government, while expenditures should decrease, because of the excess mortality among the elderly, that of 500 million.
And again, this result is probably a minimum because the NRC stated Thursday in his introduction that he is a “provisional estimate, likely to be later revised significantly”. Similarly, the gap in living standards between retirees and active, which was 5% in 2019 and on which the president Macron has built part of its policy at the beginning of the quinquennium is expected to double this year as it was intended to decrease.
This first estimate of the crisis on pension systems is crucial because it will condition the opinion that the monitoring committee of the pensions (CSR) must go to Edward Philippe before the 14 July. This group of five specialists in the topic is indeed loaded, since the reform of Touraine 2014, to prevent the prime minister in the event of drift of the accounts. However, it has been three years that the CSR’s warning of a return to deficits and the amount to take corrective measures…
incidentally, It was his opinion that, in the summer of 2019, had revived the track of a age pivot 64 to rebalance in the short term, and before the implementation of the universal regime, the finances of the pension system. There is no doubt that the opus 2020, given the extent of the deterioration of the accounts, should remind a bit harder on the need to reform the system.
In his note, the French HORN evokes a track pointing that the two countries in the economic thinking radically opposed, the United Kingdom and Sweden, which have already been programmed to revise the modes of indexation of pensions “to engage, at least partially, the retirees, the funding of the effects of the health crisis”. Not sure that this way will be retained by the executive, which was promised, after the episode catastrophic increase in non-offset of the CSG for this category of the population, not to touch the purchasing power of retirees…
systemic Reform
Remains that Emmanuel Macron seems to have the urge to rework its systemic reform, including the consideration by the Senate in April has been postponed sine die. The president would like to make it to vote before 2022, but after sanitized of its elements non-consensual. An option that rejects all of the social partners, including the CFDT. “I continue to believe that a universal system of pensions is the most fair. I’m not giving up. But this is not the time to start afresh in clashes on this subject at the beginning,” said Laurent Berger, secretary general, at a meeting organized on Thursday by the Association of journalists of social information (Sjia).
The issue of pension reform, that many people believed buried, might well come back on the front of the stage. But not necessarily in the angles as we could think…
The editorial team conseilleLe pension deficit will soar to 2020 because of the coronavirusRetraites: why reform Macron does not survive the crisis…SujetsRetraiteEmmanuel MacronCFDTLaurent BergerCORCSREdouard Philippe19 commentairesFATALITAS36le 12/06/2020 22:53
The containment has led to an unprecedented economic crisis, for the moment, we are on a drip, but that won’t last. If ever, by some misfortune, this monstrous economic crisis caused by the confinement is prolonged, it will probably consider capping all pensions based recipes, you will not be able to continue to pay all pensions if the funds are empty, I said all pensions, policies and officials that are included…
sirius7le 12/06/2020 22:15
It would be nice that the media are trying to make the inventory of public deficits and their consequences. It is more than time to put pressure on the government.
Cap de longle 12/06/2020 22:15
in the footsteps of Greece …
If nothing is done , pension funds will be empty in less than 5 years except for those of the public who live off the tax …
The status of Agirc Arrco – fund and private – in the need to borrow to pay the pensions of June is alarming ! a
Macron and Philippe do not measure the problem , Agirc Arrco is at the service of the 30 million French private …
Reform of financing of funds essential and urgent !
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