NEW YORK (Dagbladet): Mellomvalget gave a clear signal that many americans have had enough of the course and the endless stream of chaos and scandals under Trump. The democrats don’t seem to get a parademarsj to The white house in 2020 because of it.
When expected seierskvinnen Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, gave american voters namely also a clear signal that they have developed a deep mistrust towards the governing elites of both parties. For the first time in several decades are the Democrats now face a primaries that are not dominated by a Kennedy or a Clinton. They are missing a clear leader of men, and direction. Trump was able also to tear in pieces many rules for how one should go forward to be president. We are thus on the threshold of what can be a very chaotic and divisive democratic primaries with a tredvetalls candidates.
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War in primærvalgkampen will go along several axes. One of them is Trump. All candidates against him must have a strategy for how to deal with a capricious, deceitful bully. By meeting with Trump with Trump’s methods, it can fire up democratic voters. But it can also fire up the president’s velgerbase. And who wants to be seen as a bad copy of Trump? Its likely candidate, senator Elizabeth Warren, is already reviled for having allowed himself to be fool out of Trump to take a DNA test to prove that she has native american blood. If it is possible, it is probably for security not to let themselves be drawn into his game.
another factor is age. Some of the most well known and popular candidates is far past the retirement age. Former vice president Joe Biden (76) has a wide appeal among white arbeiderklassevelgere, which was crucial for that Trump won in 2016. Bernie Sanders (77) appeals to the left, and many young and independent voters who dislike the maktelitene. But age can be an obstacle for both of them.
Ideology will , of course, also play a central role. The last few years have venstrefløyen among Democrats has grown strong. Candidates like Sanders and Warren want to take the party to the left, and it is no longer taboo to call himself a democratic socialist. Perhaps wish the voters a clear course away from the Trump and the republicans. But a hard venstrekurs can at the same time scare away independent sentrumsvelgere, of which there are many in the united STATES.
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Democrats also been the party of diversity. Republican politicians are mainly white, rich, old men, while the democrats to a far greater extent it reflects how demografien in the united STATES is changing. The growing minority groups vote most of the Democrats, and in mellomvalget got the party into a record number of women, gay people and candidates of different ethnic and religious backgrounds. African-american candidates such as senators Kamala Harris and Corey Booker, or Latin american Julián Castro is among those who thus have good opportunities. But valgoppslutningen among minority groups is often low. The question then becomes whether the Democrats can find a way to mobilize these groups.
As previously will also, geography could play a big role. Candidates, who are popular in the states that hold primaries first, have a great advantage. It is usually the election results in the overwhelmingly white and homogenous states like Iowa and New Hampshire that are leading. This year will California hold their primaries much earlier than before. Thus, it is very diverse and most populous state on the west coast suddenly get far greater influence. Candidates who have good chances to win vippestater in the election itself, will also be able to have an advantage. And if, for example, the cellist Beto ORourke has a chance to win valgmannsstemmene in the populous and traditionally republican home state Texas, the road to The white house will be significantly easier.
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Trump says two years ago also showed how kjendisfaktor can help to win the presidential election. Many of the current democrats – perhaps with the exception of Sanders and Biden – is currently rather unknown. Even if the TV queen Oprah Winfrey has denied that she will ask, can Trump says have opened the doors for other kjendiskandidater. This can so complicate the in the for traditional politicians.
So far of his poem the democratic field of potential candidates in all directions. It can be healthy and give the voters real options. But it can also tie up the Democrats in a chaotic primærvalgkamp where they are most concerned about to drum out against each other. For the moment it may be one of the very few bright spots in Trumps existence.
