the ROME – dating Back to mid-December, the first cases of human transmission of the coronavirus 2019-nCoV and are, therefore, prior even to the notification of the first cases of infection in China. This is what emerges from the analysis that reconstructs the early stages of the epidemic, in which the infections have doubled every 7,4 days. With the average age of sick people detected to 59 years of age, half of whom are over 60. Published in the New England Journal of Medicine, the analysis must be to the chinese Center for disease control and prevention of diseases (Cdc).
The research has been done on the first 425 patients, a number that starts to be good to be able to draw up a sort of identikit of the epidemic. In the study there are other very interesting data. Among these is the fact that you are sick no one under the age of 15, the rate of contagiousness is 2.2 (the world health organization estimated between 1,4 and 2,5). while Sars was 3. And then, as well as less lethal, the new coronavirus is also less contagious. There is unperò, which differentiates it from other cases: the virus has started to circulate long before realizing it. In mid-December had already begun transmission from man to man, and then had two weeks to expand and nobody accorgezze, without any limitation. Then there is another problem: it is expected that the restrictive measures taken in Wuhan reduce infections, but the epidemic is now escaped out of the city, and there, in those conditions, is certainly more difficult to block it.
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