In the beginning, the forecasts indicated that the japanese economy would contract by 1.2% in the third quarter of the year. a Few forecasts that have been proven wrong , because the data provided on Monday by the Office nipponese Government Cabinet is more than two times higher.
Specifically, the GDP of the asian country has declined 2.5% in the period July-September compared with the previous year. The natural disasters this summer have caused the worst fall ever seen in Japan since the second quarter of 2014, four years .
The trade tensions also affect
strong storms and earthquakes forced the stoppage of the operation of the factories in the country. A factor that, together with the uncertainty unleashed by the trade tensions between the united States and China has dragged down the GDP of the third largest economy in the world to lose 0.6% on a quarterly basis. A figure more than double that of the fall expected in the preliminary estimate.
The natural disaster and the trade war have caused a contraction of 0.2% in the consumption of households with regard to the previous three months, when the first data provided pointed to a decline of a tenth. An important indicator for Japan, as it represents around 60% of its economy.
consumption and investments go down
on the other hand, has also dropped the capital investment of the companies in 2.8% in comparison with the previous quarter. The projections published in November pointed to a contraction much lower, at 0.2%.
In this sense, the japanese do not cease to be optimistic. In both consumption and investment have fallen due to natural disasters, the economy of the asian country can recover if the weather is favorable during the last quarter of 2018.
japanese Workers at a Toyota factory . (Toru Hanai / Reuters)
In the period April-June, Japan returned to the growth path after having suffered a harsh contraction in the first quarter of the year, which cut the trend of the expansionary prevailing thirty years earlier. A growth in any case is moderate. Everything under the new economic policies of the prime minister, Shinzo Abe , based on a program of stimulus for the deflation of cheap loans.
In this case, beyond the natural disasters and the trade war is the main problem of the japanese economy is the shortage of labor and slow growth of wages . Therefore, one of the main fixations of Abe currently is the improvement in the integration of women into the working world. In the same way, this weekend has passed a law that will allow starting in April, the arrival of migrant workers to Japan.
