The former supreme commander of the US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, has been extremely critical of statements made by the Bundeswehr Inspector General Eberhard Zorn on Ukraine’s prospects of success in the war with Russia. On Twitter, Hodges described Zorn’s remarks as a “breathtakingly poor analysis” of Russian capabilities, which are representative of the thinking of the German elite – he put elites in quotation marks.
Zorn had previously expressed caution about the chances of success for the Ukrainian counterattack. At best, he sees “counterattacks that can be used to win back locations or individual sections of the front, but not to push Russia back across the board,” Zorn told Focus. The Ukrainian army acts “wisely, rarely offers a broadside and conducts operations confidently and very flexibly”.
Two weeks ago he said that the entire Donbass would be in Russian hands in six months. “Today I’m saying: They won’t be able to do that.” But Zorn, the highest-ranking soldier in the Bundeswehr, doubts whether the Ukrainians really have the strength for a counteroffensive: “They need a superiority of at least 3 to 1.”
Zorn expressed the fear that Russia could open a second front and listed possible targets: “Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, the Finnish border, Georgia, Moldova… there are many possibilities. Putin would have the skills. Even if around 60 percent of its land forces are tied up in the Ukraine war, the land forces and, above all, the Russian navy and air force still have uncommitted capacities. If Putin ordered a general mobilization, he wouldn’t have any personnel problems either.”