The (un)skillful balancing of economic strength and military power determines the rise and fall of great empires – economic power has always been a prerequisite for political dominance, but has just as often led to megalomania, fantasies of omnipotence and ultimately to decline and decay. That is the main message of the historian Paul Kennedy.
In his almost 1,000-page bestseller from 1987 on “Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000” (and a much-noticed outlook into the 21st century at the time), he recognized a repeating cycle of rise, overexpansion, exhaustion and decline – by the Habsburgs in the 16th and 17th centuries, the kings of France in the 17th and 18th centuries, Great Britain in the 18th and 19th centuries, and Germany at the beginning of the 20th century up to the Soviet Union.
Now history does not repeat itself – but certain patterns can depict possible future developments. These include that time and again “statesmen have faced the usual dilemma: either they buy military security in a time of real or perceived danger, a security which then becomes a drain on the national economy; or they kept defense spending low, but then sometimes saw their own interests threatened by other states,” says Paul Kennedy.
Apparently, economically successful societies tend to invest far too much effort in securing the prosperity they have achieved in the past and to invest far too little in long-term “productive” projects – which undermines the economic basis of future prosperity and the security financed from it. One then feels well protected on the Titanic and fails to appreciate how close prosperity and risks that threaten one’s existence already are.
In precisely this mode of maintaining existence and refusing growth, Western Europe threatens to gamble away its economic future, which then also causes a loss of political power. “No Growth” ideologies claim moral superiority in this country. Radical groups like the “Last Generation”, “Just Stop Oil” or “Futuro Vegetal” rely on the destruction of civil society and cultural values.
They stick to roads to block traffic. Or they throw food such as mashed potatoes or soup at paintings in museums. In this way they want to gain attention for their supposedly world-saving prohibition and renunciation policy. As if the mood of the end of the world, doomsday scenarios and endgame forecasts could cope with the indeed enormous challenges. Exactly the opposite ensures the best conditions for future generations.
It is new technologies that enable green, smart and cool growth. In this way, far more can be produced sustainably with fewer ecological resources – without negative consequences for the climate, the environment and children’s children. Less and no more bureaucracy, regulations and moralizing arrogance help most effectively to improve the quality of air, water and soil.
It is important to further develop ecological core competencies into economic export hits. The transfer of sustainable technology is by far the most effective contribution that Germany can make to a better future for everyone – worldwide and especially for much poorer regions of the world.
But the “no growth” prophets are not concerned with sustainable solutions at all, but with ideology. As an example, Greta Thunberg, figurehead of the Fridays for Future movement, made it clear last week that she was declaring war on capitalism and striving for a “system-wide transformation” – away from “a system characterized by colonialism, imperialism, oppression and genocide defined the so-called Global North to amass wealth and still shapes our current world order.”
And at this point at the latest, the “Rise and Fall of the Great Powers” by historian Paul Kennedy becomes a threatening memorial. Because 30 years after the end of the Cold War, there is a déjà vu with history. The struggle between “capitalism” and “communism” is back. He rages militarily through the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. And it is fueled further when China openly threatens to enforce its claims to power – for example against Taiwan – by force if necessary. And then the matching super fighter jets will be presented.
Up until now, economic strength has offered Europe protection from other people’s striving for power. It was European technology leadership that set (or set) limits to China’s aggression. The People’s Republic was fundamentally dependent on imports from the capitalist West after the brutal economic descent as a result of the lost “Opium” wars in the 19th century and the devastating upheavals of the “Cultural Revolution” in the 1960s. German cutting-edge technology and industrial capital goods in particular were indispensable for rapid growth.
That is why Beijing has been playing the “opening” card in recent decades. Globalization within the framework of a (Western-dominated) multilateral world economic order should further stimulate the rapid economic catching-up process. In turn, he financed the modernization of the Chinese armed forces, which enabled the return of the People’s Republic to a geopolitical superpower. But now China has reached the top – first economically, now militarily.
With that, Europe and its “change through trade” doctrine have done their duty. Beijing no longer needs Europe. Especially when it comes to digitization, data management, artificial intelligence and cyberspace, the People’s Republic has long been the measure of all things alongside the USA.
The powerful need not negotiate on an equal footing with the weak (as was the case during multilateralism). If necessary, he can enforce his interests with (military) force (threats). If Europe wants to escape the cycle of ascent, overexpansion, exhaustion and descent, it has to be at the top of the world economy. Economic strength alone gives you political power and limits the power of others.
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