Since the removal of Theresa may’s Brexit Deal on 15. January is the UK in a state of crisis. The country looms on the 29. March fall without any agreement from the European Union. In this desperate situation, the votes in favour of a second Referendum. In the UK, but also in other European countries. Both on a political level, but also in the population. A recent survey suggests.

It sounds like for many of the tempting. The polls predict that the British, who have voted in 2016, with 52 percent to 48 percent for the Brexit , would this time vote against an exit from the EU. So: A new, democratic vote, and the UK remains, probably, in the EU and all the problems are solved?

it is not that simple. What speaks against a second Referendum? The most important arguments:

failure to respect the will of the people

Even if it was not legally binding: the result of The first referendum, a clear and democratically absolutely legitimate instruction to leave the EU. The turnout was 72 percent, higher than in the case of the following General election. To ignore this Directive, would be a disregard of the will of the people. Since it helps first-time nothing, that it is the Parliament that would vote in a second Referendum. Because the legitimacy of Parliament depends on the political people. And if the will of the people is ignored, then democracy is at stake. This is also the main argument of the Prime Minister, Theresa May, to reject a second Referendum strictly.

Unclear Referendum-conditions

It is also not clear whether to trust the polls, which show that the British majority for a second Referendum. Because the conditions under which a second Referendum could be held, are unclear. The proponents of a second referendum, to understand quite different things under such a vote. To the simple question: Stay or go? Or, for example, should be a free trade zone, a customs Union, or a connection to the internal market.

“Neverendum”

A second Referendum on the same question, as of 2016, leads almost automatically to the question: Why not a third? A fourth? A fifth? Just as long as the vote, until the result fits? But whom, exactly? In the UK at the end of term “neverendum courses for this terrible political, between the realm of the meeting”.

Social polarisation

to deepen The depth of the political division of the country would by a second Referendum with a large probability. All those who have voted in favour of the Brexit, would see with some justice to her voice betrayed her. The most important vote in decades, just repeat that? Weariness of the EU, Weariness of politics, the Weariness of democracy would increase for many, and a dangerous development may be accelerated. Million Brexiteers would feel by the political Elite betrayed, who had promised the Referendum, a clarification question in Europe once and for all.

the EU

And for the case that the British people decide in a second Referendum on the Brexit, would also be solved for the EU is still long as all of the problems. The British government, as always, these looks could work in a divided country, it is certainly very active in deepening relations with the EU. The probability is great that this government represents the national interests in the foreground, and many European projects are not blocked to anxiety to fuel at home. The EU is under pressure from nationalists for example in Poland, Italy or Hungary, would also have to keep the disruptive forces emanating from a traumatized great Britain, under control.

And now? The Brexit-Drama can only end badly, no matter what happens. The question is: Which one of the bad scenarios, the least bad? In spite of the above-mentioned points, this could be a second Referendum. To keep the damage to British democracy as small as possible, that would be a challenge, in which the British government never so helpless, and negligently allowed to act as in the Moment.

(editing Tamedia)

Created: 29.01.2019, 13:40 PM