In the recent past, there has been total confusion about the Uk’s departure from the EU. To restore your view of the situation, we have asked five incisive questions to Ekstra expert in brexit, James Kristoffer Miles.
– When leaving the Uk the EU?
– The most likely scenario right now is enough, that the EU is going to extend the deadline 12. april. There is also the risk that the Uk rush out without an agreement. There are certain actors in the EU who have an interest in it, as, for example, the president of the French republic Emmanuel Macron, who knows krisemødet last week spoke of a hard edge.
– and with that there is still not any evidence that Theresa May can get its deal passed in the house of Commons, anything could also indicate that the braces out of the EU. But conversely, there are also more conciliatory actors in the EU. It applies to the president of The European Council, Donald Tusk, Ireland’s prime minister, Leo Varadkar, who will not back up to throw the Uk out, if they can not agree.
– If Theresa May can’t get the agreement adopted in the house of Commons, is the most likely scenario, it will lead to one or another form of extension. So will the track be scraped up for all possible scenarios for a new parliamentary elections or a referendum.
The british prime minister embraces the EU commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker Photo: Ritzau Scanpix
– it Will be a hard or soft brexit?
– In that they would not have been adopted Theresa Mays agreement on a relatively soft brexit, and since at the same time, are strong players in the conservative party, who either want to have a no deal-brexit, or a very hard brexit, is the chance of a hard brexit increased. It is also due to Theresa May’s replacement will probably be a, who would like to see a very hard brexit. But it is clear that there can happen so much, that about a month or two is back with some brand new terms.
Boris Johnson is among the candidates to take over after prime minister Theresa May Photo: Ritzau Scanpix
– Who will succeed Theresa May?
– The most likely candidate is enough Michael Gove , a former justice minister in David Cameron’s government. He was also a candidate, as Theresa May went on to win the formandskampen back in 2016. He is a very bad ticket seller, so he will probably not be the big vote-getter in an election. In return, he is a kind of kompromiskandidat, who knows the party inside out. Even though the party has been divided on the european issue through the generations, he will be a candidate, as the hinterland can back fairly.
– Then there is former foreign minister Boris Johnson , which is a warm supporter of brexit. In my eyes he is a wild bid on a candidate because he is a splitter – not a collector. He was stabbed in the back by Michael Gove back in 2016, when he volunteered his candidacy for the presidency after David Cameron’s departure. He had to withdraw again after 24 hours, because he did not have the backing from Michael Gove. At the time, claimed Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, was not stable enough to be president of the conservative party. The question is whether anything has changed since then.
– A third candidate is the former brexitminister Dominic Raab . He was also a candidate back in 2016. He is possibly the least disadvantaged candidate when it comes to his history in the party. Dominic Raab has no turbid past history, and that is not everything possible, personally, to sow discord in the relationship with him.
Britons demonstrate in order to get support for a new referendum on brexit. Photo: Henry Nicholls/Ritzau Scanpix
– brexit so far been a success or a failure for the Uk?
– It has been a resounding failure. If you look at the Uk’s reputation from the outside is the fallen. A borgerforslag on the uk parliament website, where it proposes to withdraw article 50 back to drop the brexit, has also scored over six million signatures. There are a great many britons, who believe that the whole process has been a complete disaster for the country.
– When it is said, there is still a really big part of the british, who find the alternative to be in the EU even worse. The uk is a large country, and the british have in some extend a self-perception, which bears the imprint of that country once ruled over half of the world. Therefore, there is a very strong reluctance to submit themselves to a supranational structure in parts of the society.
Lars Løkke Rasmussen (V) pressing the EU commission president Jean-Claude Junckers hand. Photo: Ritzau Scanpix
– What impact will brexit have for ordinary danes?
– It all depends on how the brexit will be translated. If it gets implemented. A reasonable nearby consequence will be, that the danes, who travel to the Uk, perhaps coming through the border in a slightly different way. The danes, who travel to the republic of Ireland or northern Ireland, will maybe get a slightly different experience than they have today. This is not to say that it will be completely different, because the Uk is not a member of the Schengen agreement.
– We should probably not expect great toldmure. The british have already said, that in the event of a no deal-brexit will dump the duty on various goods. It will mean that Danish companies will still be able to export to the Uk, even though there is not an agreement. Conversely, Britain’s exports to the european countries to be hit. The country is a big trading partner for Europe. And historically, the Uk has been one of the largest trading partners for Denmark in the EU.
