If China continues to sneeze, Germany will catch a cold and Spain risks a pneumonia. Of all of the data, the preferable are the immediate. Before the new export orders already recorded, that the forecasts estimated GDP future. The first are tangible. Second, calculations are changing with the wobble of the situation.
So we start the chart from the OECD on export orders in 88 ports around the globe. The German achieved his own highest peak (and the world) from 2015, to end of 2017. And since capotan sharply from the area the blast to get closer to the bust in the third quarter of 2018. The line of foreign sales of chinese is parallel, but moderate on the rise; and more dramatically in the fall, as it has already been investigated thoroughly in the negative zone.
The OECD has calculated that if all the threats trumpistas of new tariffs (and their replicas) are met, the global trade will suffer by almost two points to 2021. The chinese GDP, at about 1.3%. And the overall, 0.8 tenths.
The pagan will be Germany
Among the most open economies, one of the great pagans will be Germany, for his leadership exporter. What, for its quality locomotive, would drag the rest of the eurozone. A prelude on the real scene of this scenario were the data (logged) GDP of the monetary union aerated a week ago. Then spread the alarm by Germany in the third quarter of the year grew by only two-tenths, one-half that in the previous quarter. The worst figure in four years, a setback unprecedented since the first quarter of 2015.
They provided two explanations. A, more immediate, argued the bad times of the automotive industry: its delay in accommodating the new environmental regulations of the EU on emissions.
it was Not trivial, because the production fell in September, largely for that problem, Perabet a 24%. Of a sector which represents 31.5% of the total number of vehicles produced in Europe. And represents 5% of the GDP of the Federal Republic, around 20% of its industrial production.
So that only the impact of this unfortunately lowers the GDP federal to 1.6% this year (OECD), even less than calculated by its Cameras (1.8%) and six tenths below that of 2017. Optimists considered that this deterioration was and is cyclical, because the constructors of the cars will be the batteries (electrical). But the pessimists saw in the two tenths of the third quarter —a figure even worse than the dreaded— the claw of the international situation.
Some reasons in support of that anguish, that the report of yesterday multiplies. China, which grew 7.7% in 2013, it will be 6.6 per cent this year and 6.3% the next, and 6% peeled in 2020, according to the OECD. The consumption has been limited and the investment has collapsed.
For reasons in part domestic. And in large part due to the protectionist pressure that squeezes from Washington, and that has prevented that for the first time in 29 years, the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) was concluded a summit —at the end of last week— without even writing the usual (and her) a document of conclusions.
Still not tolling the bells to funeral for the economic growth. But I guess, intuit, flirt shamelessly with him. And if this comes to be so, the consequences for the well-being and the economic policy will also be multiple.
So, the ECB must rethink the pace of withdrawal of stimulus, not whether the patient will remain inert on the stretcher. The european fiscal policy will need to explore how autorresucita and do not persists in the errors contractionary of the Great Recession. And the package is franco-German to delve into the monetary union should be accelerated.
