The European Commission has today given the lace to the project of Budgets of the government of Pedro Sanchez at the point, as announced in exclusive THE COUNTRY, that the measures that it contains involve a “risk of breach” of the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. The community executive considers that the draft submitted by the minister Nadia Calviño, that with the supports current will hardly be able to get ahead of the Congress, deviates from the objectives of deficit and debt provided for. And in addition, reduces to practically zero the structural adjustments. Brussels calls on the executive to take the “necessary measures” to correct those deviations.
The community executive has not wanted to give blood today, neither with Spain nor with the other four countries (France, Belgium, Portugal and Slovenia) that have not passed the examination of their analysts. The commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Pierre Moscovici, has indicated that these countries should make major structural adjustments (that is, excluding the factors related to the economic cycle) in 2018 and 2019, but wanted to mark clearly the line that separates you from Italy, in whose huja of the fiscal path, there is a violation of the rules considered “serious”. “Are risks, which may not have materialised, but there is that point to them”.
MORE INFORMATION Brussels will require Spain an adjustment of the deficit, although it is minimum Brussels warns Spain of the risk of breaching the fiscal adjustment
Made this caveat, the documents of opinion about Spain are strong and warn of a “risk of significant deviation” of the deficit and insufficient progress on the path of reduction of public debt. The analysis of the European Commission develops the differences between the estimates of the government of Sánchez and his.
The document sent to Brussels points out that the debt will be in 2019 at 95.5% of GDP. However, analysts of the Commission take the view that it will not come down from 96,2% to cause that the primary surplus will be 0.5 percentage points lower than forecast. This indicator is not trivial, since once you leave the arm corrective, Brussels will look with a magnifying glass that indicator, as it has been doing with Italy, for judging whether there is a “sufficient progress towards compliance”.
Income swollen
however, the main differences are in the specific measures Betsmove for the coming year. The EU asked Spain a few structural adjustments equivalent to 0.65% of GDP, but Spain welcomed the flexibility given bahis in the standards, to water them down to 0.4%, that is to say, around 4,800 million euros. That would have been in a good position in the exam Commission. The Government anticipated that the new measures recaudatorias amounted to 0.6% of the GDP, while the increase in spending was 0.2%. However, the Commission disagrees: in its opinion, only will be about 0.4% higher and the costs will be higher than the 0.3% of GDP. That leaves the settings to virtually zero.
The bulk of the differences between Brussels and Madrid is, therefore, in revenues. The report of the Commission points out that they’re overestimated the revenues from the financial transaction tax (taking into account the experiences of France and Italy), by the tax digital (the Commission has its own calculations because he wants to implement at the community level), by the estate tax (which, remember, is transferred to the communities), the fight against tax fraud and the increase of contributions for the minimum wage. By the side of expenses, is of the opinion that there will be a greater local effort for kindergartens ($330 million), a cost derived from the elimination of co-payment (362 million), and there is the threat of the compensation that the Catalan Government would have to face the cancellation of the privatization of the public company ATLL.
After noting that this year Spain will be diverted from the goal set by the executive of Mariano Rajoy of 2.2% and anticipating that the coming year will not come at 1.8% fixed, Brussels asks Spain to take the “necessary measures” within the “process of national budget” to stay within the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact and to accelerate the reduction of public debt with respect to GDP. And, in addition, calls on the government that will be delivering all the new information on the accounts that emerge in the light of that still has not led a project budget in the Parliament. The vice-president of the Commission, Valdis Dombroviskis, have been encouraged to take the accounts to the Congress. “The important thing is that you take it to the Parliament and it was approved”.