The party of independence would achieve an absolute majority in the Catalan Parliament were held today regional elections, but the Republican Left of Catalonia increased its advantage with respect to Junts per Catalunya, the mark of the ex-president Carles Puigdemont. This is reflected in the polling of the Center of Opinion Studies of the Generalitat made public this Friday. In an eventual referendum on independence the yes to secession would be achieved 47.2% of the votes, half a point more than the last barometer of July.
The study indicates that the Republican Left would get today between 36 and 38 deputies in the Parliament, up to seven more of the one you currently have. Desbancaría as well to Citizens as the first force, it would go from the current 36 members to about 29 or 30. In third place would be Junts per Catalunya, the group’s president Quim Torra, that it would be between 23 and 24 seats, 10 less than they have now. The great benefited from this rout, it would be the CUP, which would be four to 10-11 seats. The socialists can add up to a deputy to the 17 you have now, while Catalunya in Common would of the eight that currently has 12 or 13. Within the ranks constitutionalists, the PP is still low and you could lose one or two of the four mps who currently have.
With these figures, the party of independence would get between 69 and 73 deputies, which would maintain the absolute majority, located in the barrier of the 68 deputies. All in all, in an eventual referendum on independence secessionist would still reach the barrier of 50%. The yes would win 47.2% of the votes, half a point more than in the last poll. The would not stay in 43.2%.
CKD also win the general elections in Catalonia if it were held now between 14 and 15 mps, followed by EnComúPodem with between 10-11.After these two games, two other formations would be disputed third place: the PSC could achieve between 7 and 8 seats, and Cs between 6 y8; they would follow the PDeCAT with 6, and in last place would be the PP Catalan would be between 1 and 2 mps in the Congress.
The survey was conducted between 20 October and 12 November, in a context in which the public Prosecutor asked for prison sentences of up to 25 years for the leaders, nationalists, and the sample is 1,500 people and with a margin of error +-2,53.
Jordi Argelaget, director of the CEO, has highlighted that CKD is strengthened and that Junts per Catalunya loses support both in favor of the republicans and even of the CUP. “It was a candidacy that is very ad hoc and eight months later you’re relocating in the political space,” he said. The barometer, carried out between 22 Betticket October and 22 November, between a universe of 1,500 people, found that 47.2% of the respondents are in favour of Catalonia becoming an independent state in front of the 43,2% that reject them. The difference, therefore, is widened now to four percentage points compared to the advantage of 1.8% points of the barometer of 2018. Argelaguet has downplayed the difference by holding that as on the latest polls is virtually a technical tie between the two options. In parallel, the preferred option would now be an independent state (38,9%); an autonomous community (25%), and a state within Spain, federal (21%). According to the recall vote, the electors socialists prefer in their majority to Catalonia to remain an autonomous community (43%) as compared to that is a state within a federal State (38%).
The study did not include the views of the catalans on the Monarchy but on the other hand, that they are asked for their views on the Constitution -“Is now celebrating its 40th anniversary and it was good to ask his opinion”, said the director – and the franco regime. To the question of why they will vote in a referendum to endorse the current Constitution: 57% would vote “no” compared to 17.4% yes. 9.4% would abstain.
With a 52% recall of vote, are the electors of Citizens voters more faithful to the constitutional text above that of the PP (45.5 per cent). All the rest of the electorate, including the socialists, would provide for “no”. The barometer sheds also the novelty on how you value the dictatorship after the controversy of the exhumation of the dictator: 68.5% considered that it was a time negative compared to the 3% who say they had something “positive”. 22.5% notes that had “positive and negative things”. The perception, according to the recall vote, reveals that 51.7% of supporters of Citizens are in this group, as 48.7% of the of the PP.
Oriol Junqueras, the former vice president of the Government and president of ERC, returned to be the political best-rated. With a 5,97 points, is the only one that approves with Marta Rovira, the secretary general of the party, who fled to Switzerland; Elisenda Alamany, the exportavoz of the common, in a clear confrontation with the address, and Carles Riera, a spokesman of the CUP. Carles Puigdemont, the former president of the Generalitat, suspended with a 4.59 like Quim Torra, his successor, with 4,34 points. Miquel Iceta (3,95); Inés Arrimadas (2,19) and Xavier García Albiol (1,47) also suspended. The two Governments, both the Torra as Pedro Sanchez, suspended in a straightforward way: with an average of 3,72 the first and 2,99 the second.
