Neither the agricultural crisis nor the new government seem to have reshuffled the cards. Four months before the European elections, which will take place next June, Jordan Bardella maintains his lead over the presidential camp, as revealed in our latest Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud Radio. The National Rally (RN) list would still be in the lead, with 28 to 29% of voting intentions, distancing its Macronist opponent by 10 points. “There is nevertheless a slight decline in the RN list, which shows that there has been no effect of the agricultural crisis” in favor of the Lepéniste party, analyzes Frédéric Dabi, general director of Ifop. However, Jordan Bardella remains far ahead in rural communities, where he would soar to 36% of voting intentions, double that of Renaissance and its allies.
No “Attal effect” either for the presidential party which would remain between 18 and 19%. And this, whatever the head of the list chosen among the new names circulating: Julien Denormandie, former Minister of Agriculture, Clément Beaune, former Minister of Transport and Valérie Hayer, new president of the Renew group in the European Parliament . “No candidate mentioned makes a difference. The dimension of the label of the presidential majority is for the moment greater than the incarnation,” comments Frédéric Dabi, while Renaissance and its allies have still not designated their leader. Some in the majority are also pleading to move up a gear. “There is an urgent need to take the European campaign seriously. (…) If we do not do it, our result will be half that of the National Rally,” urged former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, on the set of the “Grand Jury RTL-Le Figaro-M6 -Paris Première”.
Far behind, the fight continues between Les Républicains (LR) and Reconquête, below 10%. On the right, François-Xavier Bellamy would find a base of 7 to 7.5% of voting intentions, a little less than his score in 2019 (8.48%). The MEP would nevertheless manage to be a short head ahead of Éric Zemmour’s party, led by Marion Maréchal (6 to 6.5%), who is insistently eyeing the LR electorate. The step is still high, since the niece of Marine Le Pen would attract barely 2% of LR supporters.
On the left, Raphaël Glucksmann is timidly doing well and would cross the 10% mark for the first time, except in the event of Clément Beaune’s candidacy for the presidential majority. “It has the capacity to bring back voters who left for Emmanuel Macron,” indicates Frédéric Dabi, while 10% of the Head of State’s voters would choose the socialist ballot. Behind, the Greens are struggling to return to the feat of 2019, where the candidacy of Yannick Jadot received 13.5% of the vote, far ahead of the other left-wing forces. After a sluggish start to the campaign, the head of the environmentalist list, Marie Toussaint, would peak at between 8 and 8.5%. The MEP is closely followed by the list of La France insoumise (LFI), led by Manon Aubry, who would garner only 7 and 8% of the voting intentions. “LFI no longer dominates widely as was the case during the presidential election. The election could mark a rebalancing of leadership on the left,” explains Frédéric Dabi.
