If the door of Parliament closes, the referendum window remains. After the surprise rejection motion adopted in the Assembly to exclude the immigration bill from the executive, three quarters of French people (74%) ask to be directly consulted on the subject. According to the latest wave of our Odoxa-Backbone Consulting survey for Le Figaro, recourse to the people is particularly popular among supporters of the RN (92%) and Republicans (82%), who have been calling for this process for a long time. Ditto for socialist (PS) and macronist (Renaissance) voters, who also adhere to this scenario (61%).
However, if a narrow majority of the country (53%) believes that the motion to reject was “a good thing”, only 28% of respondents say they are in favor of completely abandoning a law. In detail, the “balance” project defended by the government is less popular (25%) than the more coercive one demanded by the Republicans (45%).
Beyond their view of the substance of the measures, the French agree in their severity towards the executive. A majority of them thus point to a “failure” for Gérald Darmanin (62%), but also Élisabeth Borne (62%) and Emmanuel Macron (61%). More than one in two respondents (54%) even believe that the Head of State should have accepted the resignation of the Minister of the Interior, who presented it to him on the evening of the snub received at the Palais Bourbon.
As a result, in the current context, the country is demanding a major government reshuffle, with a change of prime minister (63%). Some 56% also say they want a dissolution of the National Assembly, despite the refusal that the President of the Republic has opposed on this subject to the demands of the National Rally and La France Insoumise.
Aware of the victory they won against the executive – a first since the start of the legislature – the various opposition forces have since tried to capitalize on the sequence. Particularly among their respective electorates who, unlike the French as a whole, are rather grateful to them: Marine Le Pen is praised by 66% of RN supporters compared to 36% of the country; Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 45% (Nupes) against 31%; and Éric Ciotti by 36% (LR) against 21%. An operation that everyone will have succeeded with their base.
