It’s a dilemma that Republicans swear they’ve solved. According to party authorities, who met again on Wednesday, an alliance with the executive would definitely not be on the agenda. That’s good, a small majority of right-wing supporters (51%) want to see their political family remain independent, according to the latest wave of the Odoxa-Backbone Consulting survey for Le Figaro.
If it were to happen despite everything, as several LR deputies wish, a rapprochement with the executive would not be perceived as unnatural for half of Republican voters (51%). And for good reason, Emmanuel Macron already leads “a right-wing policy” in their eyes. Hence, moreover, the desire expressed by 61% of them to see a government agreement be sealed, allowing a possible future majority to “vote its laws”.
If this scenario sees the light of day, two options would then present themselves to the President of the Republic. Starting with the dismissal of Elisabeth Borne and the appointment to Matignon of a personality from the right, as demanded by a third of the electorate of the Head of State (35%). Among the ex-LR “prime ministers”, one candidacy is ahead of all the others: that of the Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire. With this in mind, approved by 27% of French people, the boss of Bercy can count on the clear support of Macronie (65%), and on a good half of his former political family (53%). A popularity that allows him to largely distance his main internal competitor, Gérald Darmanin, of whom only 11% of French people think he would make “the best prime minister”. Even on the right, the idea of seeing the Minister of the Interior leading the government appeals to less than a quarter of supporters (23%). As for Catherine Vautrin, a time approached for the post, and Sébastien Lecornu, today Minister of the Armies, their promotion is respectively acclaimed by only 6% and 4% of the French.
Finally, the second option available to Emmanuel Macron would be to choose a figure still belonging to the right, as envisaged by 42% of LR supporters. The favorite candidate of 17% of the French, Xavier Bertrand attracts the favor of almost a quarter of the voters of the presidential party (24%), and he is on a par with Laurent Wauquiez (33% each) with the LR electorate . At the country level, the president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region – often presented as the natural candidate of the right for 2027 -, on the other hand, is doing less well than his colleague from Hauts-de-France, by not attracting the favors of only 10% of the French. Finally, the president of Île-de-France, Valérie Pécresse (7%), and the boss of the Republicans, Éric Ciotti (6%), bring up the rear in the eyes of the French. Among the panel of personalities tested, the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes appears to be the potential “prime minister” least favored by LR voters (8%).
Proof that none of the heavyweights on the right therefore compete with Bruno Le Maire to replace Élisabeth Borne, including with LR sympathizers. As for the President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, whose name is often cited for Matignon, he only convinces 7% of French people. “Today, I will not say yes,” he had recently decided anyway.
