The barometer of the political monthly of the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) of the month of November has returned to give the PSOE a prominent advantage over other parties, with a prediction of 19.4% in direct intention to vote, compared to 11.5% that gives the PP, with the return to the second position, or 11.4% of that granted to Citizens, that would be the match that lower from the previous survey of October (almost three points). The work was carried out before the regional elections in andalusia have been a shift in the political landscape in Spain. Vox passes from 1% to 1.7%. United we Can decreased 12.1% to 11%. In this work there is no estimate of vote, as it was included in the controversial poll pre-election about Andalusia.
The official survey circumvents so in this work, carried out between 1 November 11, 2018 over 3,000 interviews, to provide estimates of vote and seats. The survey focuses, in part political, in the direct intention of vote and on the votes and sympathy. In this second section, the socialist party also stood in the lead with 31.2% of the vote, more sympathy compared to 31.6% as of October, ahead of the PP now with 19.1% (18.2% in October), Citizens with 18.2 per cent (21%) and United we Can, which rises from 17.3% to 18%. Vox markedly improved in that option of voting more sympathy to the rise of 1.3% recorded in October to 2.5% in November.
On the question of what is the main problem now in Spain, Vegabet the concern for the political situation has increased since October and stands to the politicians (of 15.6%) as the second issue behind the arrest (35,8%) and, for the first time, ahead of corruption (12.2 per cent). In October, the corruption was the second problem of the country (13.9 per cent) and political party (13.8 per cent).
In the latest barometer monthly CIS in October, this official institution dependent of the Ministry of the Presidency gave the PSOE a 31.6% in estimation of vote, almost double that of the PP, which lost its strength and fell to the third position with 18.2% in front of the sorpasso that reached to the second place Citizens, who caught the 21%. United we Can and its partners are urging the quarter with 17.3%. The ultra-right Vox, that in the elections in andalusia from this past Sunday has become the fifth political force, and in the surprise that has shocked the country, remained in the survey at 1.3% (with an mp). Vox recorded yet 10.9 per cent of the ballots real and it came down to 12 seats.
surveys conducted by the CIS from which it directs the sociologist and historical socialist leader Félix Tezanos, a member of the executive of the PSOE until his appointment, has been accompanied by controversy. Experts trends and public opinion, analysts and political parties in the opposition have questioned the decision of the current director to offer the data of direct intention to vote “no kitchen”.
For the polling pre-election in Andalusia, the CIS director, however, chose to return to the previous method, in force since 20 years ago, and yes facilitated estimation of seats. It was at that job that the agency official was also unable to predict the complete failure of the electoral suffered by the PSOE in andalusia, which was predicted in this survey, 47 seats against the 33 finally achieved, nor saw the force with which has burst Vox for the first time in a parliament in the history of this democracy.
The PP has recorded this same Wednesday in Congress, with urgency, a request to appear to the director of the CIS, José Félix Tezanos, to explain the sense of his methodology.
