However, the invading force with more than 150,000 troops still has significant and potentially decisive firepower advantages as they attack key cities.
Moscow’s primary objective, to overthrow the Kyiv government, and replace it with Kremlin friendly leadership, remains unmet. Its overall offensive has been slowed down by a variety of failures, including a lack in coordination between ground and air forces, and an inability to completely dominate Ukraine’s skies.
On Wednesday, the Pentagon estimated that Russia retained approximately 90% of its combat power in Ukraine. This includes weapons and vehicles damaged or made inoperable, as well as soldiers killed and wounded. These losses, although not very significant at first glance are quite significant after two weeks of fighting.
Two weeks of war in Ukraine have led to a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine which has been accelerating in recent days. According to the United Nations, 2 million Ukrainians fled their country. This number is expected increase.
Russia has likely had between 2,000-4,000 troops killed so far, according to Lt. General Scott Berrier, director at the Defense Intelligence Agency. He also stated that his agency has “low confidence in its estimates.”
The war looks set to continue, with no sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin will withdraw. On Tuesday, William Burns, CIA Director, stated to a congressional panel that Putin is “frustrated” and will likely “double down in Ukraine.” As the fighting escalates, he said that this could lead to “an ugly few weeks.”
The West is concerned about how and whether the conflict will grow, especially since Putin has stated that he won’t tolerate any unrestricted U.S. or NATO arms supply to Ukraine. NATO has also warned against Russian conflict spilling across Ukraine’s borders into NATO countries like Poland and Romania. On Tuesday, Poland offered to transfer MiG29 fighter jets from the United States to an airbase in Germany. This would leave Washington with the question of how and whether to transport the planes to Ukraine. The Pentagon quickly rejected the idea. It called it untenable given Ukraine’s contested aerial space. On Wednesday, the Pentagon announced that it had transferred two U.S. Army Patriot air defence units from Germany to Poland in order to strengthen defenses against Russian threats to NATO allies.
Some fear that Putin’s frustration could lead to escalating the conflict in dangerous ways. He announced that he had placed his nuclear forces under heightened alert just a few days before the war began. However, U.S. officials did not detect any threatening changes in Russia’s nuclear position.
“As Putin weighs an escalation in the conflict, Putin likely still believes that Russia can militarily destroy Ukraine and wants to stop Western support from tipping it and forcing a conflict between NATO and NATO,” Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, said Tuesday.
While it is difficult to get a complete picture of the war, American and European analysts and officials say that the Russians began slowly and have been hampered by poor planning, flawed tactics, and perhaps an erosion in spirit among troops who are not ready to fight.
The Pentagon estimated that only one-third of prearranged Russian combat forces had entered Ukraine on the first day of war. The remaining two-thirds were coming in slowly until almost all of them arrived this week. Although the Russian troops have made small but steady progress, their pace of entry has been slow.
John Kirby, Pentagon’s chief spokesperson, stated that “they are having morale issues.” They are experiencing supply problems. They have fuel problems. They are also having food problems. They are facing a determined and stiff Ukrainian resistance. We still believe they are many days behind where they should be in terms of their progress.
Kirby stated that the Pentagon believes the slow progress of the Russians by ground troops has led them to use rockets, artillery, and other long-range weapons in urban areas. He said that this has led to more civilian deaths.
Kirby stated that “we believe it’s because they haven’t been able to make up the lost time they continue to suffer on the ground in terms the advancement of ground troops.”
After deploying more than 150,000 troops to Ukraine’s borders, Russians began their invasion February 24, pushing south towards Kyiv using points in Russia and southern Belarus. They also made use of Russia and Russia to reach Kharkiv (the largest city in eastern Ukraine) and north from the Crimean peninsula which Russia has occupied ever since 2014. The Pentagon reported Wednesday that Russian forces made new advances on Kharkiv this week and Mykolaiv, the southernmost city.
The Ukrainians resisted more than Putin expected. However, Russian missile and rocket strikes on cities caused civilian casualties and damaged civilian infrastructure. This accelerated the exodus of refugees looking for safety in Poland and elsewhere.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday that Russia might have underestimated how much Ukraine’s armed force has improved since 2014. This was due to U.S. training and NATO support.
Stoltenberg stated, “And this is why they are in a position to push back” so effectively.
Philip Breedlove, a former Air Force General who was NATO’s top Commander in Europe from 2013-2016, said that while Russian forces are far behind schedule they believe they can eventually take Kyiv.
He said, “Unless there’s a major operational-level change they have enough of what i call slow, steady momentum that they can tolerate the losses it will bring them, they will eventually achieve that objective.” This raises concerns about the possibility of an insurgency and Russian occupation.
Breedlove stated that the Russian offensive in south Ukraine is less stalled than the north. It was designed to create a “land link” between the southeastern Donbas and the Crimean peninsula, and west to Odesa (a port on the Black Sea), which would render Ukraine a landlocked nation.